SMU vs Penn State: AI Sports Prediction
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The Mustangs of SMU will travel to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in the first round of the first ever expanded college football playoffs.
Let's see how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction for South Alabama vs Western Michigan.
Preview of SMU vs Penn State AI Prediction
- Date: Saturday, December 21
- Time: 12:00 PM ET
- Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
- Surface: Hummer TurfGrass
- How to Watch: TNT, Max
SMU Preview
In just their 2nd meeting in their respective histories, with the last one being in 1978, SMU travels to Pennsylvania this weekend to take on the Nittany Lions.
SMU is coming off of an 11 - 2 overall season with an 8 - 1 ACC Conference where they lost two weeks ago against the Clemson Tigers 34 - 31 on a last second field goal in the ACC Championship game.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings threw three touchdowns and ran for another as he put up 310 passing yards on the day. He led the team to a 4th quarter comeback driving the Mustangs on a 16 play, 79 yard push that ended with a 4-yard Roderick Daniels touchdown catch with 16 seconds left to tie it at 31.
The ensuing kickoff ended in a 41-yard return setting the stage for kicker Nolan Hauser to end it with a 56-yard field goal as time expired.
Defensively the Mustangs struggled in the first half keeping up with Clemson's quick receivers and found themselves on the field quite often as their offense suffered from dropped passes, turnovers and penalties. They stiffened up in the 2nd half and held Clemson to only 7 points before the game-ending field goal.
SMU is ranked 13th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.
Penn State Preview
The Nittany Lions come into this game with an 11 - 2 overall record while finishing 8 - 2 in the Big Ten Conference.
The Lions lost the Big Ten Championship game to the Oregon Ducks 45 - 37 two weeks ago. Penn State tried to keep it close in the first half as Oregon took a 31 - 24 lead into the half.
Quarterback Drew Allar had a good game throwing for 236 yards on 20 of 39 passing, three touchdowns and two interceptions. The Lions rushed at will against the Ducks with Kaytron Allen rushing for 124 yards on 14 carries with a touchdown and Nicholas Singleton adding another 101 yards on 10 carries plus a pass catch for a touchdown.
The Lions defense gave up 469 total yards last week including 283 of them in the air and will need to tighten up against this SMU offense that has a potent run and gun passer in Jennings.
Penn State is ranked 9th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.
How I use Models for SMU vs Penn State AI Prediction
This should be a fun game and I'm excited to finally get into the playoff series for this season. SMU is going to be a different sort of beast for Penn State than Oregon was and conversely Penn State will be a different beast than Clemson was, which should make for one heck of a game.
As of this writing Penn State is a -8.5 favorite against the Mustangs. This line hasn't made sense to me since it opened, but we work with what we're given, and I believe the books have given us an early Christmas gift.
My Rithmm models all love this setup and with a 65.2% win probability and, in spite of the money currently sitting at a 59% bet split for the Lions to cover, I don't see it that way.
It's going to be cold with a chance for snow in Happy Valley Saturday and if SMU can come out of the gate the way they have most of the season, this is going to be a fun game to watch, especially with the backs that the Mustangs have in their stable.
But if SMU comes out looking like they did in the first half against Clemson, then this may be a different story.
I'll be taking SMU +8 to cover.
Side note, I may even consider a sprinkle on the Mustangs to win this outright at +250.
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