Sun vs Liberty: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

The top two teams in the Eastern Conference of the WNBA clash on Saturday as the Connecticut Sun travel to Brooklyn to face the New York Liberty. The Sun, currently in second place, have yet to secure a win against the Liberty this season. Meanwhile, the Liberty hold the best record in the WNBA and are aiming to lock down the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Tip-off for this highly anticipated matchup is set for 7:00 pm EST.

Preview of Sun vs Liberty AI Predictions

Our AI Picks have you covered for this game + many more

Sun Preview 

The Connecticut Sun have had a strong season so far and will need to maintain their level of play as the season progresses. Offensively, the Sun have been solid but not spectacular, averaging 80.1 points per game with a shooting percentage of 43.8%. They’ve been effective from beyond the arc, hitting 32.1% of their three-point attempts. However, their free-throw shooting has been somewhat below average, with a team percentage of 75.8%. Forward DeWanna Bonner leads the team with 16.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.0 steals per game, contributing significantly to the Sun's collective efforts.

On the defensive end, the Sun have been exceptional, boasting the league's top defense by allowing just 73.5 points per game. Their defense has kept them competitive in games, but they’ll need to find more consistency on offense to sustain their success as the season heads towards its conclusion.

Key Injuries: G Tiffany Mitchell will be a game-time decision.

Liberty Preview 

The New York Liberty seem to be on a mission this season. Despite being one of the original WNBA teams and one of the league's more successful franchises, the Liberty have yet to claim a WNBA title. This season, they have burst out of the gate and haven’t looked back. The Liberty enter this game with an impressive 25-4 record after sweeping a back-to-back series against the Dallas Wings at home this week. On Thursday night, the Liberty secured a 79-71 victory over the Wings, led by All-Star Breanna Stewart's 19 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. They now boast a league-best 14-1 home record this season.

The Liberty aim to notch their fourth consecutive win against Connecticut on Saturday night. They've been dominant on both ends of the floor this season, ranking second in scoring with well over 80 points per game. The Liberty lead the league in field goal percentage and are fourth in 3-point shooting, also ranking first in 3-point field goals made per game. Defensively, New York is third in points allowed, second in field goal defense, and fourth in 3-point defense. Additionally, they are second in total rebounds per game and third in fewest turnovers per game. The Liberty lead the WNBA in point differential at +10.3.

Key Injuries: G Sabrina Ionescu will be a game-time decision. F Betnijah Laney-Hamilton is out.

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Liberty vs Sun AI Prediction:

With Rithmm’s AI Picks model you are able to dive deep into just about any trend you can think of, below is just a snap shot of what I pulled for todays game. 

Recent Performance: 

• The Liberty are on an eight-game winning streak and have been dominant at home, boasting a 14-1 record. They’ve also had the upper hand against the Sun recently, winning all three matchups this season​

Betting Trends:

• The Liberty have been strong against the spread (ATS), covering in seven of their last eight games. On the other hand, the Sun have struggled ATS, covering in only two of their last seven games. When playing against New York, the Sun are 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups​

Scoring and Defense: 

• The Liberty have been one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, averaging 86.2 points per game, while Connecticut has the best defense, allowing just 73.5 points per game. However, New York's balanced attack and strong defensive stats make them a formidable opponent tonight​

Total Points: 

• The total has gone over in four of Connecticut’s last five games against New York, indicating that tonight’s game could see a higher point total than expected​

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My Sun vs Liberty AI Prediction

Keep an eye on Ionescu's status as game time approaches. If she plays, the Liberty should have a decisive edge. Without her, the game could be more competitive, but I still favor the Liberty for several reasons. The Sun will struggle to keep pace with New York's high-powered offense. Despite having the top-scoring defense in the WNBA, the Sun aren't particularly dominant in defending the interior. They rank only 7th in field goal defense, although they are strong in 3-point defense, ranking second. This likely means the Liberty will focus on attacking the paint, with Stewart and Jonquel Jones poised to take advantage of easy scoring opportunities. 

The Sun rely heavily on creating turnovers to fuel their offense, but the Liberty are disciplined, ranking third in the WNBA in fewest turnovers. Additionally, it's important to note that the Sun are playing on a back-to-back, while the Liberty are coming into this game well-rested.

Given these factors, I'll take the Liberty at -6.5.

Selection: Liberty -6.5

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