Sun vs Lynx: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

The Connecticut Sun (15-4) travel to Minnesota on Thursday, July 4th to take on the Lynx (14-5). The Lynx are looking to extend their 7 game home winning streak. This game will be played at the Target Center at 5:00 PM PT and will air on Prime Video. The line is Lynx (-1.5) with a total of (154.5)

Let’s take a look at my Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx AI prediction for Thursday night.

Preview of my Sun vs Lynx AI Prediction

This is a classic clash between top teams in the Eastern Conference and Western Conference. Both teams are hot but one has to come out victorious. The Lynx have been phenomenal on their home wood all year. They’re (9-1) at home. Meanwhile, the Sun are (7-2) in road games.

These two teams are squaring off for the second time this season. In their first matchup, on May 23rd, the Sun had the last laugh winning (83-82).

Connecticut Sun Preview

The Sun come into this matchup with a record of (15-4). They stand at second in the Eastern Conference trailing only the New York Liberty. Overall, the Sun have had a very strong start to this season.

In their last 10 matchups, the Suns are (6-4). They’re (7-2) in road games this season. DeWanna Bonner leads the team in scoring averaging 16.2 points per game. When it comes to rebounding and assists they’re led by Alyssa Thomas who averages 9.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game.

The Sun are (8-11) against the spread this year. Connecticut is winless against the spread (0-3) when playing as at least a 1 point underdog.

This plays a key role in my Sun vs Lynx AI prediction.

Minnesota Lynx Preview

The Lynx come into this match with a record of (14-5). They have a 1 game lead ahead of the Seattle Storm for first place in the Western Conference. Just like the Sun, the Lynx have had an outstanding start to the season.

They’re (7-3) in their last 10 matchups. The Lynx are led in points by Napheesa Collier who chips in 20.6 point per game. She also grabs 10.4 boards per contest. Minnesota is fourth in the WNBA averaging (83.0) points and is shooting (44.7%) from the field.

The Lynx are (13-6) against the spread this season. They’re riding a 7 game home winning streak and are (9-1) on their home court for the year. According to ESPN analytics, the Lynx have a 63.8 % chance of winning this game.

How I Use Rithmm Models for Sun vs Lynx AI Prediction

The spread in this game is Lynx (-1.5) with a total coming in at (154.5) Rithmm predicts the Sun to cover the number and the total to sail under. Let’s dive more into what the AI model is talking about. Rithmm predicts the Sun to lose by (0.8) points.

If that’s the case, and the line is Lynx (-1.5) the automatic response has to be to take the Sun plus the points. This bet has a (56.8%) win probability so that’s where I’m leaning.

We have more of an edge with the total with Rithmm predicting the final number to land at (150.9) With that being said, and the total being set at (154.5) the clear cut play is the under. We have a (4.5) point edge and the win probability, according to Rithmm, is (65.4%)

Read more about AI WNBA picks here and check out our AI sports picks here.

My Sun vs Lynx AI Prediction

My Rithmm model predicts the Sun to lose by (0.8) points. The opening line was Lynx (-1.5) Knowing this, the play has to be Sun plus the points. This also has a (56.8%) win probability. In terms of the total, this is where we have a more serious edge.

If you’re debating between taking a side or a total in this game I would lean the total as we have more of an edge using Rithmm’s AI model. Rithmm predicts the total to land at (150.9) This means it’s going under as the number is set at (154.5) Also, this bet has a (65.4%) win probability.

Make your own picks with your free Rithmm trial

Using my Rithmm model and following trends posted by Lineups, the clear cut pick in this matchup is Sun (+1.5) and the total under (154.5). If you’re torn between picks and don’t know what to do, I’d say take the under here rather than the side as we have more of a Rithmm edge there. I’m not saying the side isn’t a good play but with the total we have a better probability when it comes to percentage and we have more of an edge as it’s predicting the game to be (4.5) points lower than what the total is set at.

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