Tennessee vs NC State: AI Predictions

On Saturday, the SEC’s Tennessee Volunteers will take on the ACC’s North Carolina State Wolfpack in a cross-conference showdown at the 2024 Duke’s Mayo Classic. This marks the first meeting between the two programs since 2012, and both teams will welcome the heightened competition after facing FBS opponents in Week 1.

The game will be held at Bank of America Stadium, home of the NFL’s Carolina Panthers, creating a lively atmosphere similar to last week's USC vs. LSU matchup in Las Vegas. NC State is familiar with this venue, as it will be their 9th appearance at the stadium.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM EST on Saturday, September 7th

Preview of Tennessee vs NC State AI Predictions

Our AI Picks have you covered for this game + many more

NC State Preview 

NC State ended last season on a high note, winning their final five games and earning a spot in the AP Top-25. However, their campaign concluded with a 28-19 loss to Kansas State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Heading into 2024, the Wolfpack are once again ranked in the Top-25 and are eyeing an elusive ACC Championship — a feat they have yet to achieve, as they've never appeared in the ACC Championship game. With the ACC now securing an automatic bid to the expanded NCAA playoffs, there's no better time for NC State to make their move.

Leading the Wolfpack this season is senior transfer quarterback Grayson McCall, who was a standout at Coastal Carolina. McCall, a three-time Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year, compiled over 10,000 passing yards and more than 1,000 rushing yards during his time with the Chanticleers. In his debut for NC State, McCall guided the team to a 38-21 victory over Western Carolina. He completed 26 of 40 passes for 318 yards, throwing three touchdowns and one interception.

Sophomore wide receiver Keven Concepcion had a big game with 123 yards and two touchdowns, building on his strong freshman season in which he caught 10 of NC State's 19 touchdown passes. Another offensive weapon, Duke transfer Jordan Waters, contributed 123 rushing yards and two touchdowns, including a 50-yard run that sealed the win late in the fourth quarter.

Defensively, the Wolfpack were solid last season, ranking 24th nationally and allowing just 20.8 points per game — a 5.3-point improvement over their offensive output of 26.1 points per game. 

The unit returns five starters but must replace key players, including linebacker Payton Wilson, who was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the third round. In their opener against Western Carolina, the defense allowed 120 rushing yards and 241 passing yards — both higher than their averages from last season. Additionally, Western Carolina’s quarterback led his team in rushing with 75 yards on six carries, averaging 12.5 yards per run, a potential area of concern for NC State moving forward.

This plays a key role in my Tennessee vs NC State AI prediction.

Tennessee Preview 

The Tennessee Volunteers finished the 2023 season with a solid 9-4 record, though they went 4-4 in SEC play. Their dominant 35-0 victory over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl, despite being favored by only 4.5 points, gave the program strong momentum heading into 2024. With key offensive playmakers returning, Tennessee is set to build on its impressive 31.8 points-per-game scoring average from last season, while the defense allowed only 20.3 points per game. Their continuity earned them a No. 15 ranking in the AP preseason poll.

Freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava made his debut in the Citrus Bowl, impressing with 12 completions on 19 attempts for 151 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 27 yards and three touchdowns, totaling four on the day. Considering Iowa had a top-5 defense, his performance was especially noteworthy. 

Iamaleava carried that momentum into Week 1 of this season, leading Tennessee to a 69-3 rout of Chattanooga. He completed 22 of 28 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns. Junior running back Dylan Sampson also had a standout game, rushing for 124 yards on 12 carries and scoring three touchdowns. Wide receiver Dont’e Thornton added 105 yards on just three catches, and the offensive coordinator has hailed this receiving corps as the deepest they’ve ever had.

Defensively, the Vols were a strong unit last season but are undergoing some changes with new coaching staff and several new players. The strength of the defense lies on the line, led by All-SEC standout James Pierce, who recorded 10 sacks last year. However, the secondary is entirely new and will need to adapt quickly for Tennessee’s defense to maintain its elite status. 

While Chattanooga didn’t present the toughest challenge, the defense did its job, allowing just 74 rushing yards and 153 passing yards. Chattanooga attempted only 13 passes, which contributed to Tennessee's defense recording just one sack in the game.

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Tennessee vs NC State AI Prediction:

With Rithmm’s AI Picks model you are able to dive deep into just about any trend you can think of, below is just a snap shot of what I pulled for todays game. 

Betting Line & Spread: 

• Tennessee is favored by 7.5 to 8.5 points, depending on the sportsbook, and the over/under is around 60.5 to 61.5 points​ This suggests expectations for a moderately high-scoring game, with Tennessee projected to win by more than a touchdown.

Recent Performances: 

• Tennessee dominated in their Week 1 game against Chattanooga, winning 69-3. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava had an impressive showing, throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns​. In contrast, NC State had a tougher time against Western Carolina, trailing at multiple points before pulling away with a 38-21 victory​

Head-to-Head Matchups: 

• These two teams haven't played each other since 2012, so there isn't much recent direct history. However, Tennessee is favored based on their stronger performance against non-conference opponents​

Tennessee's Offensive Strength: 

• Tennessee’s offense has been explosive, averaging 69 points in Week 1 and showcasing significant firepower behind QB Nico Iamaleava and RB Dylan Sampson. The Vols have won 11 straight non-conference games, covering the spread in 10 of those​

NC State's Defense:

• While NC State struggled defensively in Week 1 against Western Carolina, particularly against the pass, they’ll need to improve to keep Tennessee's offense in check. This is especially important given Tennessee's ability to score quickly and often​

Volunteers in Neutral-Site Games: 

• Tennessee has shown strong performances in neutral-site games, suggesting they could be more comfortable in the big game atmosphere at Bank of America Stadium​

I used all of this data in my in my Tennessee vs NC State AI prediction.

My Tennessee vs NC State AI Prediction

The Wolfpack got off to a slow start in their opener against Western Carolina but eventually found their groove, posting a solid offensive performance. NC State accumulated 521 total yards, including 318 through the air, and converted 7 of 13 third-down attempts while securing 28 first downs. However, the level of competition will significantly increase when they face Tennessee. 

Tennessee, in contrast, made an emphatic statement in their first game, overwhelming Chattanooga with 718 total yards (414 passing), 36 first downs, and an impressive 8.0 yards per play. Defensively, the Vols were just as dominant, holding Chattanooga to a mere 1-of-14 on third downs and limiting them to 3.8 yards per play. NC State presents a tougher challenge, and the Wolfpack will have enough fight to cover the spread in this matchup.

Selection: NC State +8.5

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