Texans vs Colts: AI Prediction
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The NFL season is finally upon us and with that comes excitement and high expectations from teams and their fans. The Houston Texans kick off the season with an in-division matchup with the Indianapolis Colts at 1:00 PM EST in Indianapolis.
Preview of my Texans vs. Colts Prediction
The match up features the reigning AFC South champion Texans who won 10 regular season games and got to the divisional round of the playoffs and the Colts who ended the 2023 season with a winning record despite their highly touted, first-round rookie quarterback playing just four games due to a number of injuries. Both teams look to make big strides in 2024 and it all starts with a big week one matchup. Let’s take a look at the Texans vs Colts AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this AFC South showdown.
Houston Texans Preview
The Houston Texans entered last season with a new head coach in DeMeco Ryans and a rookie quarterback in second overall pick, C.J. Stroud. The expectations last year were tempered but optimistic. They ended the season 10-7, winning the AFC South and made the playoffs for the first time since 2019. 2024 is a different story for this Texans team. The expectations are as high as they have ever been. The football masses expect Stroud to take a big step in his sophomore year and be one of the elite quarterbacks in the league.
Last year, the Texans offense ended the season ranked 14th in the league in DVOA. They added key pieces to their offense during the offseason in WR Stefan Diggs, OT Blake Fisher, and RB Joe Mixon. Stroud will have plenty of weapons to turn to with WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell still in the fold. The Texans are expected to be a passing team led by Stroud and their three headed monster of WRs.
The defense, also, made a push this offseason. They added EDGE rusher Danielle Hunter, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, and DT Denico Autry to a defense that was ranked 16th in DVOA last season.
The Texans are the odds-on favorites to win the division and a win against their rival would go a long way towards that goal.
Indianapolis Colts Preview
The Indianapolis Colts drafted their quarterback of the future last season, picking Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL draft but unfortunately he played just four games after injuries to his shoulder and head ended his season. But Shane Steichen, one of the great offensive minds, kept them competitive last year and they ended the season 9-8 but out of the playoffs.
Despite playing with a back up quarterback and without their superstar RB Jonathan Taylor for most of the year, the Colts offense ranked 13th in DVOA. They are looking to WR Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs to be Richardson’s safety blankets while RB Jonathan Taylor returns to form after his extended holdout last year.
Last year, the defense was at the bottom half of the league, ranked 20th in DVOA. They added defensive line help in star EDGE rusher Laiatu Latu and DT Raekwon Davis.
The Colts will look to rely on their athletic, young quarterback who is more than capable of racking up the rushing yards. In the four games he played last year, he totaled 136 yards with 5.4 yards per attempt.
How I Use Rithmm Models for Texans vs Colts AI Prediction
This is an interesting game to look at when trying to take a betting side. The spread and over/under on this game is Texans -2.5 and 48.5. At first glance and listening to the offseason hype, the Texans giving less than 3 points is enticing.
However, when digging in deeper, the line makes more sense. The Texans were 4-4 on the road last season and the Colts were 5-3 at home. When playing in Indianapolis, the Colts totaled 1,409 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per attempts compared to 650 yards on the road and 3.3 yards per attempt. With Taylor and Richardson in the fold, the Colts can control the possession game.
Also, the Colts won the first matchup between these two teams last season when Richardson was still playing. They did lose the second time they played but despite not having the starting quarterback, the game was tight, ending 23-19.
Looking at the numbers and the trends of these teams, I am leaning towards betting the spread.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my NFL AI Predictions.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first model that I customized, “Offense/Passing”, is a model that favors an offensive minded team, weighing the offense, passing, and Rithmm’s rank system that uses the app’s own Bayesian and Elo to best explain past wins and losses. This model actually has the Colts as a slight favorite with a -0.2 point edge.
The next model I customized for the NFL season is the “Defense/Running” model that puts heavy emphasis on all defensive categories, running the ball, and Rithmm’s rank system. This model has the Texans as slight favorites, giving just 0.4 points.
Lastly, the “Well Rounded” model that I customized evenly weighs all of the available categories. With offense, defense, passing, running, and the Rithmm ranks all relatively aligned, the model favors the Texans and has the spread at Colts +2.
My Texans vs Colts AI Prediction
With my own research and with all three of the models showcasing an edge on the given spread towards the Colts, I feel I have a good sense on how the game will play out. The models seem to indicate that these two teams are evenly matched. With the Colts at home and Taylor and Richardson leading the charge, I’m taking the COLTS -2.5 in the Texans vs Colts match up.
More AI Predictions for NFL
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