Texas vs Oklahoma: AI Predictions - College Football

Saturday will be the 120th meeting of the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners to determine who gets the coveted Golden Hat. Since 2000, Oklahoma has owned the Longhorns, winning 17 of the 25 games played and it will also be the 18th time since 2000 that both teams have been ranked in the top 25 when they played this game.

Let's see how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction for the Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners.

Welcome to the Red River Rivalry!

Preview of Texas vs Oklahoma AI Prediction

• Date: Saturday October 12th
• Time:  3:30 PM ET
• Location: Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, TX
• Surface: Natural Grass
• How to Watch: ABC

Oklahoma Sooners Preview

The 18th ranked Sooners will come into Dallas with a 4 - 1 overall record and 1 - 1 in SEC play in their first year in the conference. They look to extend their winning ways after rallying back from an 11 point fourth quarter deficit and clinching the game with a 61-yard game-winning interception for a touchdown to defeat Auburn 27 - 21. The Sooners only loss this season was to a dominant Tennessee team 25 - 15 the week prior.

Sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold was pulled during the Tennessee game in favor of Michael Hawkins, Jr. who put in a decent effort going 10 of 15 for 161 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions and was only sacked twice. He also ran for 69 yards, including a 48 yard run, on 14 carries and one touchdown in the win. He will need to bring much more than this if Oklahoma has any chance of matching up against this Texas defense.

The Sooners also have been fighting the injury bug this season with the likes of star wideout Jalil Farooq, who broke his foot in game one, finally out of his boot this week, but still not available and some good news on defense as linebacker Dasan McCullough, while still listed as questionable, should be available to start his first game of the season after sustaining a toe injury in preseason.

Oklahoma is going to have to bring everything they have including the kitchen sink if they have any hope of keeping pace with this Longhorns team.

The Sooners are currently ranked 18th in the AP Top 25 and 17th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

Texas Longhorns Preview

The #1 ranked Texas Longhorns will ride into the Cotton Bowl on a 5 - 0 run that includes a solid drubbing of Michigan in Lansing 4 weeks ago. Texas has been outplaying all comers and while the Michigan game was a statement game early in this season, Oklahoma should not be overlooked. It would be easy for this to be a trap game as Texas plays Georgia next week, but the Sooners should not be taken lightly.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers looks to be taking the reins again as he returns from an oblique injury he sustained against UTSA. Arch Manning did a good job in his stead but head coach Steve Sarkisian feels that having a bye week last week helped prepare Ewers for the start. "I thought he looked good coming off the bye," Sarkisian said. "I think if anybody benefited from the time off, it was probably him."

Ewers is 58 for 79 with 691 yards this season with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions and has been sacked one time while Arch Manning was 55 for 78 with 901 yards passing with two touchdowns and no interceptions but four sacks.

Texas is currently ranked 1st in the AP Top 25 as well as 1st in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

How I use Models for Longhorns vs Sooners AI Prediction

I'm not really sure where to go here. Texas is the prohibitive favorite coming into this contest and has everything to lose. They are coming into the meat of their SEC schedule playing great ball. They have two capable quarterbacks, a solid defense and look good on paper as well as film.

Oklahoma is the team with something to prove, and if the Red River Rivalry has shown us anything, it's that anything can and will happen in this game, and the Sooners will definitely need some of that luck on Saturday.

Full disclosure, I'm not a huge fan of this bet. But this is betting and we have to look at all of the metrics to see how to approach any scenario. What sticks out to me is that as of this writing the money is heavy towards the Sooners to cover the spread with a 56% bet split. This game opened at -14.5 to Texas (DK). If so much money is coming in on Oklahoma to cover, why hasn't the line moved?

I'm leaning on my Rithmm models here. I'm leaning HARD on my Rithmm models here. I've said before that I try to never bet with my gut. And my gut tells me that this is going to be harder for Texas than we might think. But, I have to trust the models and this one says take Texas and lay the points.

I'll be on Texas -14.5

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