Open Championship Course Preview

Well, that was certainly an exciting end to the Genesis Scottish Open. And while plenty will focus on Robert MacIntyre winning his national open, I'm moving on to the next event: the 152nd Open Championship, held at Royal Troon in Scotland.

The Open Championship tends to be the most difficult of the four majors to handicap, due to the continuous rotation of courses leading to a dearth of strokes gained data to focus on. That won't stop us from figuring this tournament out though!

Last year, Brian Harman took command of the event at Royal Liverpool very early on and never relinquished the lead, but I imagine Royal Troon will play a bit different, and easier, than Liverpool did last season.

Let's dive into my 2024 Open Championship course preview and of course, the best bets according to my Rithmm model that we'll be following this week.

2024 Open Championship Course Preview

Contrary to last year's Open Championship host, Royal Liverpool, Royal Troon is more of a classic Links golf test. Founded 146 years ago, it has hosted an Open ten times in the last 100 years, and features plenty of the common themes that we see on a yearly basis for the season's final major.

Royal Troon has the deep pot bunkers we associate with these types of course that will punish inaccuracy with any club and guards against a 'bomb and gouge' strategy, it's a coastal course that shows wind and inclement conditions as its primary defenses, and the fairways are rarely ever flat, with plenty of humps and moguls that can shoot your ball into places you would not like it to go if you are not strategic about targeting them.

It is also a very stringent ballstriking test. On greens that are miniscule in comparison to most of the Links courses, the best approaches from the fairway will be rewarded here and misses will not be able to bail themselves out as easily, given the immense amount of greenside defenses.

Birdies are easier to find here than your typical Open Championship, and while everything depends on the weather that we see, right now things look mostly benign.

The course itself famously has three layers to it: Purgatory, Heaven, and Hell. These nicknames are not in jest, as each six-hole layer of the track has its own specific features. Heaven is the first six holes, notable for being the easiest spots on the course to locate birdies. From holes 7-12, Purgatory will test your abilities to stay on top of things, with holes into the wind. Closing things out, simply surviving Hell from holes 13-18 is an accomplishment, with pars amazing scores.

Rithmm Models used for 2024 Open Championship Course Preview

In every Course Preview, we’ll be diving into Rithmm’s proprietary model to help you build the best betting model for that week’s course! Rithmm has its own AI model that it generates based on thousands of sims, but you also might want to build your own model, so that’s what this section is for.

When we get into Rithmm’s modeling aspect, it has five customizable sliders that you can mess around with: Recent Performance, Par 5 Performance, Par 4 Performance, Par 3 Performance, and Course Fit. You can adjust these to your heart’s content, and make it reflect the way you see the important stats.

My model for the 2024 Open Championship at Royal Troon is below:

Welcome to the last major championship of the season, where more than anything, your ability to stay cool under immense pressure and record good scores no matter your predicament is more important than almost anything else.

During most majors, but especially for the Open Championship where we have less data than almost anywhere else, I preach the ability to come in in good form as well as course fit being the two most important skills, by far.

First of all, course fit. The intricacies of a Links-style course, compared to most every other course on the PGA Tour schedule, are much different than most, so being in tune with what this course will demand from you is of paramount importance.

Recent fit also is absolutely massive. History has shown that the players entering the Open Championship in great form have tended to leave later that week with either a trophy in their hands or a solid finish, so it's important to know that like any major, the best players tend to prevail.

As far as the actual holes on the course, a better way to categorize them than the usual Par 3s, 4s, and 5s is to look above at the three six-hole characterizations. I wouldn't say any of the holes are more or less challenging than the others, as everyone tends to be on the same page when above all else, accuracy with irons is the most important statistic.

Best Betting Picks for the Open Championship 2024

It’s time to build our Rithmm betting card for this week. We’re going to go into each of Rithmm’s favorite picks for Top 20/10/5 based on my model, and whether I agree or disagree with it.

Top 20: Joaquin Niemann +200 (41.2% Rithmm Win Probability)

Niemann fits the profile of what we're looking for pretty snugly. He's dynamic with his irons, ranking strong from 150+ yards and solid with his wedges inside of 100 yards as well.

However, there is a major red flag in Niemann's profile that I can't get past, and it will hurt him more here than it ever has at other Links-style courses: his driving accuracy. To me, Niemann's poor driving accuracy, which has shown him to be less than accurate than the field average in both majors he has played this year, is a major concern.

Missing the fairways at Royal Troon will result in uncomfortable lies with all sorts of issues: pot bunkers, gorse bushes, and other nasty impediments. If Niemann can't get in play off of the tee, his great approach game won't matter nearly as much.

Instead, roll with Sungjae Im to make the top 20 at +210, with a Rithmm probability of 37.1%.

Top 10: Tony Finau +400 (29.2%)

Finau has had some less-than-stellar major results lately, with only one top 20 finish in his last eight major events, but it is worth noting that the last time this course played host to an Open Championship in 2016, he finished T18 in only his second major stat ever.

Big Tone has a similar profile to Niemann in that he also can struggle with driving accuracy a bit but has a monstrous approach game, and the reason I'm willing to go with this is his familiarity with this course and his long-standing success on links-style courses. Between strong finishes at Kiawah Island, this course in 2016, and other strong comp courses, I think Finau has a chance to finally win his first major.

Top 5: Tom Kim +1000 (13.4%)

There are not many better course fits for Royal Troon than young Tom Kim this week.

It's easy to go with the simple reason: Troon is very similar, as stated above, to Royal Liverpool, last year's host course that Kim finished runner-up to Brian Harman on. Both courses reward accurate driving off the tee, strong scrambling around the greens, and hitting the green in regulation.

There's a change with Troon that makes Kim the PERFECT candidate though: the added requirement of pinpoint iron approach play. Troon forces you to hit the greens even more forcefully because the greens are much smaller than most Links courses, and that's where Kim can absolutely separate.

The young Korean may not be prime Scottie Scheffler with his approach game (who is, anyways?), but he can strike it purely with all of his approaches: he ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last five years at major events with a high missed fairway penalty.

Kim will be on my list of outrights this week, the youngster can absolutely win the Claret Jug.

Outright Winner Pick for the Open Championship: Collin Morikawa +1600 (6.8%)

A brutal final round from Ludvig Aberg marred the opportunity for us to grab our first correct outright from this column, but better to get it for a major tournament, right?

Well, there's no player who is playing better at major tournaments this season (besides an arrest-free Scheffler, of course) than Collin Morikawa. With three top-15 finishes this season at the most important events, and two of them top fives, Morikawa has been playing his best golf since 2021.

Morikawa fits the continuing trend of golfers picked here that are absolute nails with their irons, with Collin considered one of the best approach players in the world most of his career. He has gained strokes on approach in each of his last eight events, but there's a fun twist as well: now he's a dynamite putter too, gaining strokes in his last five on the greens, including all four rounds of last week's Genesis Scottish Open.

The prevailing issue with Morikawa this season has been that he cannot close tournaments, wherein he struggles to make those putts on Sundays and the field catches up with him. That may not be as much of an issue at Royal Troon, where if there's any sort of inclement weather, the field should struggle to score at all.

Collin should look to get out early with a strong performance in the first few rounds, and then close the deal on Sunday to become a two-time Open Champion.

AI Caddie Picks for Round 1

The AI Caddie is an awesome Rithmm tool that allows you to go hole by hole with any player you choose and it will show you a chart of how likely that player is versus the field to get any score on a hole.

Closing Remarks on 2024 Open Championship Course Preview

The last major of the season is always said because it makes you realize the golf year is almost done, but the good news is that we have everything broken down for you here! Royal Troon is a perfect venue for the Open Championship course as we have seen, and I can't wait for play to tee off. I hope that my best bets & course preview gives you all the insights and predictions needed to make informed wagers.

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