Titans vs Colts: AI Prediction - NFL Picks for Todays Game
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Week 6 of the NFL season is here and there are a lot of teams very much in contention. Unfortunately, in the AFC South, the Houston Texans have taken command, and the rest of the division has floundered so far. Two of those teams are featured in this game, the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts. Both of these teams are battling injuries from their young starting quarterbacks and some other key players.
Preview of my Titans vs. Colts Prediction
It hasn’t been the season each expected but let’s take a look at the Titans vs Colts AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this AFC South showdown.
Tennessee Titans Preview
The Tennessee Titans entered the season with a new head coach in Brian Callahan and looking to see if they have something with young quarterback, Will Levis. Well, the season hasn’t kicked off through the first four weeks as they wanted. They are 1-3 headed into this matchup and the offense hasn’t been able to get anything going. Through Week 5, they rank last in total yards with just 1,025, they rank 30th in Net Yards per Pass attempt, 20th in yards per rushing attempt with 4.2, and they are first in interceptions thrown with 6.
The defense has been a little better but not by much. They rank 31st in turnover percentage while surrendering 22.5 points per game. However, they rank first in total yards allowed.
The Titans quarterback room, but specifically Levis, has been underwhelming. He has continued to make head-scratching decisions that cost his team valuable points. That being said, Mason Rudolf, who may possibly start this game with Levis nursing injuries, led the Titans to their one and only win against the struggling Miami Dolphins after Levis left the game early.
In their last 5 games, the Titans are 1-4 against the spread and 0-2 at home against the spread.
Indianapolis Colts Preview
The Indianapolis Colts season also have not began the way they have wanted. They come into Week 6 with a 2-3 record and a hurt starting quarterback. Anthony Richardson, nursing an oblique injury, is doing what he can to make a comeback this week, but Joe Flacco has stepped in to lead the team. Not only are they hurt at quarterback, but star running back is also tending to an ankle injury that may limit him as well.
On the season, the Colts rank 13th in total yards, 9th in total touchdowns scored, 7th in net yards per pass attempt and, also, 7th in yards per rush.
Veteran Joe Flacco has done a great job filling in for Richardson. They were able to top the Steelers with him throwing two touchdowns after Richardson left the game. They then fell to the Jaguars, but Flacco threw for 359 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Colts defense has left a lot to be desired. They rank last in the league surrendering 419.2 yards per game and 24th in points allowed with 24.4 points per game
The Colts are 4-1 against the spread and 1-1 in away games against the spread.
How I Use Rithmm Models for Titans vs Colts AI Prediction
The spread and over/under for this game is Titans -2.5 and 42.5. My first thought when seeing this is that both of these teams are not playing the best football and with banged up quarterbacks, I’m inclined to go with the QB and Coach I trust more, which is the Colts duo.
On the Titans side, whether it is Will Levis or Mason Rudolf, I’m not convinced they will be able to take advantage of the Colts poor defense.
Looking at the numbers and the trends of these teams, I am leaning towards betting the spread.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my NFL AI Predictions.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first model that I customized, “Offense/Passing”, is a model that favors an offensive minded team, weighing the offense, passing, and Rithmm’s rank system that uses the app’s own Bayesian and Elo to best explain past wins and losses. This model actually has the Colts as a favorite at -2.2. This gives a huge edge on the given spread with a 4.7 point edge.
The next model I customized for the NFL season is the “Defense/Running” model that puts heavy emphasis on all defensive categories, running the ball, and Rithmm’s rank system. This model has the the Colts as slight favorites also, with a model spread of Colts -0.5. This gives an edge of a full 3 points.
Lastly, the “Well Rounded” model that I customized evenly weighs all of the available categories. With offense, defense, passing, running, and the Rithmm ranks all relatively aligned, the model favors the Texans and has the spread at Colts +2.4. This is essentially right on the given spread and has just a 0.1 point edge.
My Titans vs Colts AI Prediction
With my own research and with all three of the models showcasing an edge on the given spread towards the Colts. I think the game planning from the Colts coaching staff and with either a healthy Richardson or the veteran Flacco, the Colts will be able to keep it close or even win, I am taking the COLTS +2.5 in the Titans vs Colts match up.
More AI Predictions for NFL
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