The AL East rivals clash at Fenway Park as the Toronto Blue Jays take on the Boston Red Sox in a matchup expected to produce fireworks. Let’s break down our Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions with AI model picks, betting trends, injuries, and where to find the best odds for your bet.
The Blue Jays continue to struggle offensively, averaging just 3.0 runs per game, and their under record reflects that (0-4-1 in their last five). On the other hand, the Red Sox are clicking at the plate, putting up 6.4 runs per game with a 2-1-2 O/U record in that span. Boston’s lineup depth and recent offensive form give them an edge in this one, especially with the Blue Jays missing key players.
According to our AI MLB model, the Blue Jays are projected to score 4.0 runs, while the Red Sox are expected to score 5.0 runs — giving value to the total going over 8.5.
Blue Jays Injuries:
Red Sox Injuries:
Both teams are banged up, but the Blue Jays' rotation is especially depleted with Manoah and Scherzer on the IL, leaving them vulnerable on the mound.
Our pre-built MLB model gives the edge to the Over 8.5 Total Runs, with a 58.1% win probability at even money (+100). The projection of 9 total runs lines up with this over hitting.
This gives us strong value on one of today’s top totals — one of our best bets for Blue Jays vs Red Sox.
Here are the recent trends backing up our Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions:
The Blue Jays simply haven’t been able to push across enough runs recently, but the Red Sox have consistently carried their weight offensively. Given Toronto's weak road form and Boston’s offensive consistency, this matchup shapes up well for a breakthrough on the total.
Line shopping is crucial when betting totals. Here are the best odds available for Over 8.5:
To maximize your value, consider grabbing Over 8.0 (-115) at PointsBet or stick with the standard Over 8.5 (+100) at multiple books if you want plus money.
Given the strong model edge and recent trends, my best bet for Blue Jays vs Red Sox is:
Over 8.5 Total Runs (+100)
Boston’s bats are alive, and while Toronto’s offense hasn’t shown much, the depleted pitching staff opens the door for scoring. Trust the numbers — and the line value.
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