TOUR Championship 2024: Course Preview & Rithmm Best Bets

Watching Keegan Bradley go from the last man into Castle Pines as the 50th-ranked player in the FedEx Cup rankings to hoisting the trophy on Sunday evening was exhilarating.

Now, we have arrived at the newly-redesigned East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia for the season-ending TOUR Championship and the $25 million first-place prize that goes along with winning it.

Let's dive into my 2024 TOUR Championship course and betting preview and of course, the best predictions according to my Rithmm model that we'll be following this week.

East Lake Course Preview

Throw out everything that you thought you knew about East Lake Golf Club since the TOUR Championship started being held thre in 2004, because the course was ripped down to the dirt and entirely redesigned after the 2023 tournament. Holes have been lengthened, the greens are now Bermudagrass and tougher to hold, the fairways are now Zoysia and designed to roll out further, and the course should play more difficult than ever before.

When Andrew Green and his team took on this arduous task at the end of last season, the knew they wanted to return East Lake to the ideas of the original design, all the way back in 1913 when Donald Ross put his touches on it. Green relied on aerial shots taken in 1949 of the course and moved everything around.

Holes look different, bunkers have been removed, the fairways have been recontoured, and the greens are smaller. The essence of East Lake has always been a course that would make you grind, and while that was due a lot to the course being nearly 7,400 yards despite only two Par 5s, the course became scoreable in recent seasons. Thus, change was required.

Speaking recently about the renovation, Green said he wasn't sure whether his changes would result in higher or lower scores, but if players would be forced to hit a variety of different types of shots to succeed on the course. The course resembles the rolling hills of Augusta National with all of the penalties, including thick Bermuda rough that punishes inaccurate drivers.

Rithmm Models used for 2024 TOUR Championship Course Preview

In every Course Preview, we’ll be diving into Rithmm’s proprietary model to help you build the best betting model for that week’s course! Rithmm has its own AI model that it generates based on thousands of sims, but you also might want to build your own model, so that’s what this section is for.

When we get into Rithmm’s modeling aspect, it has five customizable sliders that you can mess around with: Recent Performance, Par 5 Performance, Par 4 Performance, Par 3 Performance, and Course Fit. You can adjust these to your heart’s content, and make it reflect the way you see the important stats.

My model for the 2024 TOUR Championship at East Lake is below:

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Keep keeping in mind that this course is entirely redesigned, and players have undoubtedly noticed that as they play their practice rounds and walk the new layout. Given this, Course Fit is up there with Par 4 Scoring for me this week. On a course like East Lake that is very demanding, from shot selection to the walk, players need o be comfortable that their game can hold up to what the curse demands.

Similar to Course Fit, Par 4 Scoring will be imperative for the players this week. The 11 Par 4s, nine of which are over 440 yards, make this course much lengthier than it may seem, and five of them feature a Bogey or Worse rate of at least 18%.

Scoring on the Par 5s and Par 3s is less important, by comparison. Startion twith the three Par 5s, all are reachable at under 600 yards and are must-birdie holes. The Par 3s, on the other hand, provide plenty of risk-reward chances and are dauntingly long, coming in all over 197 yards. They are birdieable holes though, and one that plays well on them my find himself ahead on Sunday.

Lastly, Recent Form is always mportant in big events like this. The cream rises to the top, as this is an event that has been dominated by the big names: Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Dustin Johnson. The players who are playing well, usually do well at East Lake.

Best Betting Predictions for the TOUR Championship 2024

It’s time to build our Rithmm betting card for this week. We’re going to go into each of my predictions that are based on my custom Rithmm model, and why I think it's a good choice.

For the purposes of this tournament only, Rithmm's models will be showing predictions WITH the staggered stroke format in mind.

Top 10: Billy Horschel +350 (29.9% Rithmm Win Probability)

Anyone else remember 2010s Billy Horschel absolutely dominating East Lake? I do.

Horschel won this event in 2014, finished second in 2018, and has generally played well at the season's final stop. Now that the greens are Bermuda, that's an even stonger push in his direction. Horschel loves all courses with Bermuda, as the Florida Man in him tends to play well on the surface.

Billy will start -1 in this event, so he definitely has a ways to go to get into the top ten for this bet to hit. However, our Rithmm model absolutely loves him here this week and I agree, as his game is perfect for this course.

Top 5: HIDDEN

To view this pick, check out our Rithmm app and input my model!

Outright Winner Predictions for the TOUR Championship: Ludvig Aberg +1800 (9.7%)

Feels like we've been predicting this for so long - except this week is the perfect opportunity for Aberg to prove his mettle.

East Lake prioritizes Total Driving off of the tee, strong putting on Bermuda, and long-iron proximity. All of these categories are things that Aberg has been extremely sharp in lately. He leads the PGA Tour in putting on fast Bermuda greens across his last 36 rounds, leads the Tour in Total Driving, and has been solid from long-range proximities all season long.

The Swede will start at -5 in this tournament, but he is in a good spot to chase down Scheffler, Schauffele and the rest of the pack in front of him.

AI Caddie Predictions for Round 1

The AI Caddie is an awesome Rithmm tool that allows you to go hole by hole with any player you choose and it will show you a chart of how likely that player is versus the field to get any score on a hole.

Closing Remarks on 2024 TOUR Championship Course Preview

All the tournaments are done, and it's time for one last event to wrap up the 2024 FedEx Cup season: The TOUR Championship held at the newly-redesigned East Lake. I hope that my best bets & course preview gives you all the insights and predictions needed to make informed wagers.

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