UCLA vs Penn State: AI Predictions - College Football NCAAF

The UCLA Bruins and the Penn State Nittany Lions will meet Saturday in college football action from Beaver Stadium.

Preview of UCLA vs Penn St AI Predictions

Our AI Picks have you covered for this game + many more

UCLA Preview 

The Bruins started the 2024 season with a narrow 16-13 road win over Hawaii. However, the next two games were tough losses, as UCLA was defeated by Indiana 42-13 and LSU 34-17, leaving them at 1-2 through three games.

In last weekend's matchup against Oregon, UCLA trailed 28-10 at halftime and ultimately lost 34-13. Quarterback Ethan Garbers threw for 118 yards but also had two interceptions, while TJ Harden led the rushing attack with 13 carries for 53 yards. 

Penn State Preview 

On the Penn State side, they opened the season with a comfortable 34-12 win over West Virginia, but had to battle for a 34-27 victory against Bowling Green the following weekend. In their third game, the Nittany Lions cruised to a dominant 56-0 blowout over Kent State.

Facing Illinois on Saturday, Penn State entered the second half tied 7-7. The Nittany Lions then outscored the Illini 14-0, securing a 21-7 win. Drew Allar passed for 135 yards, but it was Kaytron Allen (102 yards, 1 TD) and Nick Singleton (94 yards, 1 TD) who powered the offense with their rushing performances. 

How I Use Rithmm Models for of Utah vs Oklahoma State AI Prediction:

With Rithmm’s AI Picks model you are able to dive deep into just about any trend you can think of, below is just a snap shot of what I pulled for todays game. 

Penn State Trends:

• Strong Defense: Penn State typically boasts a top-tier defense, especially in recent years. They excel in limiting opponents’ scoring, which could be a key factor against UCLA’s offense.
• Dominance at Home: Penn State plays well at home in Happy Valley, with a notable home-field advantage. They usually perform well in night games and high-stakes matchups.
• Running Game Focus: Penn State leans heavily on its running game, with players like Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton leading a balanced rushing attack. This could exploit weaknesses in UCLA’s defense if they struggle against the run.
• Against Pac-12 Teams: Historically, Penn State has a decent track record against Pac-12 opponents, especially in bowl games and neutral-site matchups.

UCLA Trends:

• Explosive Offense: UCLA under Chip Kelly is known for its fast-paced, high-powered offense. They excel in gaining yards quickly, particularly through a balanced attack that features both passing and rushing.
• Inconsistent Defense: One challenge for UCLA has been inconsistency on defense. They’ve shown weaknesses in both the passing and rushing defense in some matchups, which could be a disadvantage against a balanced team like Penn State.
• Road Struggles: UCLA tends to struggle in tough road environments, which would be a factor if they played Penn State in Happy Valley or any challenging away venue.
• Pac-12 vs. Big Ten Matchups: UCLA’s recent history in games against Big Ten opponents has been mixed, though they have shown flashes of potential against tough teams.

Betting Trends:

• Over/Under: Given Penn State’s strong defense and UCLA’s explosive offense, the over/under could be a key consideration. Penn State games tend to hit the under when facing strong offensive teams due to their ability to control the game pace with defense.
• Point Spread: Penn State is often favored in home games, and they have a good track record of covering the spread in favorable matchups. UCLA’s ability to cover may depend on their defense holding up and their offense maintaining efficiency.

Team-Specific Factors:

• Quarterback Play: The performance of both quarterbacks—Penn State’s Drew Allar and UCLA’s Ethan Garbers (or another starter)—would be critical. Penn State may focus on pressuring UCLA’s quarterback and forcing mistakes.
• Rushing Battles: Both teams could look to establish the run, with Penn State’s duo of Allen and Singleton facing off against UCLA’s TJ Harden and other backs. Whichever team controls the ground game could control the tempo of the game.

My UCLA vs Penn St AI Prediction

UCLA is poised to cover the spread against Penn State due to their explosive, balanced  offense under Chip Kelly, who is known for making strategic in-game adjustments. With a solid rushing attack and a capable quarterback, UCLA can exploit Penn State’s defense and keep the game close. Their versatility in both the running and passing game can challenge even a strong Penn State defense.

Additionally, Kelly’s play-calling and ability to control the pace of the game will help UCLA stay competitive. Even if Penn State pulls ahead, UCLA’s ability to score late, potentially in garbage time, can help close the gap. Motivation as the underdog and improved experience from previous road games will also play a role in their ability to keep it tight and cover the spread. 

• The underdog has covered the spread in eight of UCLA’s last 10 games.
• The team ranked 7th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games.

 Selection: UCLA +28

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