Vikings vs Packers: AI Prediction - NFL Picks for Todays Game
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We are at the end of the first quarter of the season and, like usual, there are a ton of surprise teams and disappointing teams.
Preview of my Vikings vs. Packers Prediction
One of those flourishing surprise teams, the Minnesota Vikings, square off against their division rival, the Green Bay Packers, who are keeping their head above water despite losing their franchise quarterback to a knee injury in Week 1. Let’s take a look at the Vikings vs Packers AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this week 4, NFC North Division rivalry game.
Green Bay Packers Preview
The Green Bay Packers and, particularly, Matt LeFleur have impressed a lot of people around the league. When Jordan Love went down with injury, it was assumed that they would stumble being led by castoff first round pick, Malik Willis. But LaFleur and Willis have teamed up and are thriving. After losing week 1 in Brazil, they have recorded back-to-back wins, a defensive battle with the Colts, and a thrashing of the Tennessee Titans. They enter this matchup with the Vikings with a record of 2-1 and right where they want to be.
LeFleur opened the playbook a bit more for Willis in the Week 3 win against the Titans. In that game, Willis was incredibly efficient going 13 for 19 with 201 passing yards, one touchdown, no turnovers, and added 73 yards and another touchdown on the ground. There’s not much more you could ask a quarterback to do, especially a backup who was seen as a failed project.
Through three weeks, the Packers offense is ranked third in DVOA and their defense is ranked 12th. The Packers have the most rushing yards in the league with 204 yards per game and they will continue to utilize those weapons on the ground to get first downs and keep the clock running. They have been able to convert on 42.9 percent of third downs which has enabled them to keep their defense off the field and out of harms way.
The Packers have done more than tread water with Love working his way back from the knee injury. The coaching staff has done a masterful job at putting the team in a position to win.
Minnesota Vikings Preview
The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the big surprises of the 2024 season. After losing veteran, stable quarterback, Kirk Cousins, in the offseason, and after using their first round pick on rookie quarterback, J.J. McCarthy who then got hurt in the preseason, the expectations were tempered. But Sam Darnold has stepped right in and has stepped up in a big way. Head Coach, Kevin O’Connell has proven himself to be one of the great young minds in the NFL.
The Vikings handily beat a Giants team that has low expectations this season, but then the Vikings went on to beat the 49ers in a stellar, comeback 23-17 game, and then took the media favorite Texans to the woodshed with a 34-7 victory. In each game this season, the Vikings forced two turnovers and proved to be a hard-nose, stout unit.
Through three weeks, the Vikings have the 16th best offense as ranked by DVOA but their defense tops the list and is ranked first in defensive DVOA.
The Vikings are the third best team in the league at converting third downs at 45.7 percent and they are two for two on fourth down.
The Vikings are a team that rely on being a steady, consistent team and a good defense. As long as they can limit their mistakes, they will be competitive in an NFC conference that seems wide open.
How I Use Rithmm Models for Vikings vs Packers AI Prediction
The spread and over/under on this game is Vikings +2.5 and 43.5. With the Packers being the home team and the expectations for both of these teams coming into the season, at first glance, this spread makes a lot of sense.
My initial thoughts are the over/under might be a little high because of the defenses on both of these teams but the offenses have been firing on all cylinders and scoring points through the first three weeks. Because of that, I will look to find an edge on the spread. Despite expectations coming into the season, the Vikings being 3-0 and getting points is enticing.
The other important note is that in their last five games, the Packers are 3-2 against the spread and the Vikings are 5-0 which tells me Vegas keeps underestimating this Vikings team.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my NFL AI Predictions.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first model that I personally customized using the Rithmm app is a model that weighs heavy on an offensive minded team, putting the offense, passing, and Rithmm’s rank system as top priority. This model has the Vikings +0.4 which is a 2.1-point edge on the given spread. This is surprising to see because the Vikings offense has been in the middle of the pack but despite that, this is a recommended bet by the Rithmm App.
The next model I customized for the 2024 season puts heavy emphasis on all defensive categories, running the ball, and Rithmm’s rank system. This is a model that I would suspect the Vikings would benefit from and it does just that. This model has the Vikings actually favored and at a spread of -0.6. This is a huge edge of 3.1 points on the given spread. This was also a recommended bet according to the Rithmm app.
Finally, the “Well Rounded” model that I customized weighs all of the available categories equally. With all categories and the Rithmm ranks all relatively aligned, the model shows the smaller edge against the given spread. This model has Vikings +1.9, so just a slight edge towards the Vikings. This was also a recommended bet by the Rithmm App.
My Vikings vs Packers AI Prediction
With my own research and all three models giving edges towards the Vikings, it makes sense to lean towards the Vikings getting the points. I trust the quality of coaching, the superior defense and the veteran quarterback for the Vikings to guide them in Green Bay to at least keep this a close game. Because of all of these variables and with the Rithmm app’s recommended bets, I’m taking the Vikings +2.5 in the Vikings vs Packers match up.
More AI Predictions for NFL
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