Wings vs Dream: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

The Dallas Wings (9-24, 11th in the WNBA) aim to break a two-game losing streak as they visit the Atlanta Dream (11-22, 9th) on Friday. Dallas currently sits in 11th place, two games behind the final playoff spot. The Wings recently fell to the Washington Mystics 90-86 on Tuesday, ending a brief three-game win streak with two consecutive losses.

Atlanta, also with an 11-22 record, is tied for 9th place with Chicago but lacks the tiebreaker to claim the 8th seed and would miss the playoffs if the season ended today. The Dream lost 74-66 to the Phoenix Mercury on Tuesday and have dropped five of their last six games.

In terms of injuries, Dallas will be without Awak Kuier, Carla Leite, and Stephanie Soares, while Atlanta will miss Aerial Powers, Iliana Rupert, Matilde Villa, and Nyadiew Puoch.

Let’s take a closer at the Dream vs Wings AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this Friday night battle.

Preview of my Wings vs. Dream AI Prediction

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Dallas Wings Preview

The Dallas Wings fought hard in the second half, outscoring the Washington Mystics 47-39, but a sluggish start ultimately resulted in a 90-86 defeat on Tuesday night at College Park Center. Teaira McCowan had an impressive performance, securing her 11th double-double of the season with 20 points and 13 rebounds.

 Arike Ogunbowale added a game-high 21 points, including a milestone achievement as she became the Wings’ all-time leader in career free throws made. Natasha Howard contributed 14 points and seven rebounds, while Satou Sabally filled the stat sheet with 12 points, eight rebounds, and five assists. Kalani Brown made a key impact off the bench, scoring all 10 of her points in the third quarter to help close the gap.

Despite these efforts, the Wings found themselves trailing early, down by as much as 14 points in the first half. Washington took control with hot shooting from beyond the arc (9-for-16) and capitalized on seven Dallas turnovers in the first quarter alone. McCowan kept the Wings in contention with 16 points and eight rebounds before halftime, but Dallas struggled from deep, shooting just 2-for-9, and went into the break down 51-39.

In the third quarter, Dallas rallied, outscoring Washington 26-20, with Ogunbowale and Brown leading the charge. 

Brown's contribution off the bench helped trim the Mystics’ lead to just four points, 67-63, heading into the final period. However, a 12-0 run by Washington to open the fourth quarter stretched their lead to 90-75 with just over three minutes left. Dallas mounted a late 11-0 run, narrowing the gap to four points with 46 seconds remaining, but time ran out on their comeback attempt. Ogunbowale scored 10 of her 21 points in the fourth quarter, but the Wings couldn't overcome their earlier defensive struggles. 

Emily Engstler led Washington with 19 points and 10 rebounds, helping the Mystics secure a sweep of the season series and move ahead of Dallas in the standings. While the Wings dominated the rebounding battle (44-33) and outscored Washington 48-24 in the paint, their struggles from three-point range (22.2%) and turnover issues ultimately cost them the game.

For more picks, check out our WNBA best bets.

Atlanta Dream Preview

The Atlanta Dream are currently averaging 75.8 points per game, ranking 12th in the WNBA, while shooting 40.8% from the field (also 12th) and 31.2% from beyond the arc, placing them 11th in the league. They are performing moderately well from the free-throw line, shooting 77.5%, which ranks 8th. Rhyne Howard leads the team in scoring with 16.7 points per game, closely followed by Allisha Gray, who averages 15.7 points. Howard also leads in assists, averaging 3.0 per game. As a team, Atlanta averages 18.5 assists and 12.8 turnovers per game, resulting in an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.4.

Defensively, Atlanta allows 79.8 points per game, ranking 5th in the league. They hold opponents to 42.4% shooting overall (4th) and 33.8% from three-point range (7th). On the boards, they average 35.9 rebounds per game, with 8.8 on the offensive end and 27.2 defensively. Tina Charles leads the team with 9.2 rebounds per game. Rhyne Howard is the steals leader with 1.7 per game, while Nia Coffey provides rim protection with 0.7 blocks per contest.

This insight plays a key role in my Wings vs Dream AI prediction.

How I Use Rithmm Models for Wings vs Dream AI Prediction

With Rithmm’s AI Picks model you are able to dive deep into just about any trend you can think of, below is just a snap shot of what I pulled for todays game. 

Dallas' Offensive Strength vs. Defensive Weakness: 

• The Wings are one of the top offensive teams in the league, averaging 83.7 points per game (4th in the WNBA), but they struggle defensively, allowing 90.6 points per game (12th). Dallas' ability to score effectively could keep them competitive, but their defensive issues are a major concern​

Atlanta's Defensive Edge: 

• The Dream have a solid defense, allowing just 79.8 points per game, ranking 5th in the league. However, their offense has struggled, putting up only 75.8 points per game (12th in the WNBA)​ This contrast makes the matchup interesting, as it pits Dallas’ high-powered offense against Atlanta’s strong defense.

Betting Trends: 

Atlanta is a slight favorite in the game with a spread of -2.5, and the total points over/under is set at 167.5​ Dallas has not covered the spread in three of their last five games, and Atlanta games tend to go under the points total due to their defensive style​

My Dream vs Wings AI Prediction

Atlanta has been in solid form recently, particularly at home. The Dream are 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six home games, showcasing their ability to perform well in front of their fans. Additionally, they've had success against Western Conference teams, covering the spread in 7 of their last 11 matchups. This track record bodes well for their ability to handle teams like Dallas, especially with the playoff race heating up.

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On the other hand, the Dallas Wings have struggled significantly ATS, covering just 6 of their last 27 games overall. Their road woes are even more concerning, with a 1-8 ATS record in their last nine road games. This highlights their inability to perform away from home. Furthermore, Dallas has had difficulties against Eastern Conference opponents, covering only 2 of their last 11 games in that scenario.

Atlanta's balanced attack, led by Rhyne Howard and bolstered by the veteran presence of Tina Charles, who has been performing well as the season progresses, gives them an edge in this matchup.

Selection: Dream ML 

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Conclusions on My Dream vs Wings AI Predictions

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